By The Numbers: Senators Take A Leap Of Faith On A Samuel Ersson Turnaround
(Rob Gray-Imagn Images)Graeme NicholsFri, June 26, 2026 at 8:27 p.m. UTC·5 min readThe Ottawa Senators announced on Friday afternoon that they have acquired goaltender Samuel Ersson from the Toronto Maple Leafs for their fifth-round selection in the 2027 NHL Draft.
The acquisition is an odd one.
Ten days ago, the Leafs sent goaltender Joseph Woll and defenceman Simon Benoit to the Philadelphia Flyers for defenceman Emil Andrae, Ersson, and a 2026 third-round pick.
The inclusion of Ersson in that deal was a head-scratcher, simply because the Leafs already had a ton of goaltending depth in the form of Dennis Hildeby and the Calder Cup-winning Artur Akhtyamov.
Considering that Ersson was coming off a two-year contract with an average annual value of $1.4 million, as an impending restricted free agent (RFA), he would need a qualifying offer of $1.6 million for the Maple Leafs to retain his rights.
While playing professionally over parts of five seasons across the AHL and NHL, Ersson has never recorded a season with a save percentage greater than .900. In 33 appearances with the Flyers this past season, the 26-year-old posted a 14-11-5 record, a 3.12 goals against average, and an .870 save percentage.
According to Evolving-Hockey’s model, Ersson’s -6.09 goals saved above expected (GSAx) was the fifth-lowest total in the league. In 2024-25, his GSAx of -22.09 was the league’s worst.
Using their ‘wins above replacement’ model, Ersson has been worth -3.3 wins over the course of his NHL career. Meaning, had he been replaced by a league-average goaltender over the same period, it would have benefited the Flyers by three wins. The only season in which he posted a positive GSAx was his rookie 2022-23 campaign.
Ersson is still relatively young at 26, but he has not performed well in North America. Albeit, his experiences in the NHL, with the exception of this season, came while playing in front of a porous Philadelphia Flyers team.
It is worth noting that Ersson is arbitration-eligible, but a player must still be qualified by a club to maintain his rights and take him to arbitration. Given his ineffectiveness and the relatively high cost to qualify him as a RFA, there were rumours that the Maple Leafs were not going to qualify Ersson, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent (UFA).
The Maple Leafs obviously exhausted the market trying to trade Ersson’s rights, but the Senators must have had confidence that another team was close to acquiring his services. Otherwise, it doesn’t make sense to give up any assets for a player that they could have likely signed as an unrestricted free agent on July 1st.
On many levels, it would make sense for the organization to target Ersson as a young goaltender with NHL experience who could be called up from Belleville in the event that injuries or ineffectiveness beset other options, but on the surface, this feels like the Senators have tabbed Ersson as their backup.
There is simply no reason for Ersson to turn down his qualifying offer. Given his body of work, a $1.6 million one-way salary would be way too expensive as a luxury in Belleville.
It is a puzzling move given the team’s goaltenders’ performance this past season.
Until Linus Ullmark returned from his leave of absence in late January, the Senators’ goaltending collectively let the organization down. Despite some of the best defensive metrics in the league, they had created a deficit in the standings that the team just barely overcame.
In his end-of-season media availability, general manager Steve Staios acknowledged that his greatest misstep was not insulating Ullmark with a veteran option, because of the pressure it put on him and rookie Leevi Merilainen. The addition of veteran James Reimer had a noticeable effect on the dressing room and on Ullmark, but Ersson has only 143 games of experience, and the performances have not been particularly inspiring.
In consideration of Ullmark’s mental health battles and the fact that he has never appeared in more than 50 games in a regular season, entrusting the backup duties to an unproven Ersson feels like a massive gamble with the Senators taking on a lot of risk.
In fairness to Staios, however, the free agent market is not exactly brimming with desirable options. And of the veteran goaltenders who are somewhat intriguing, like Stuart Skinner or Connor Ingram, they are not going to come cheaply.
It feels odd to hang hopes on the fact that goaltending is such a volatile position and that maybe there’s a reality where Ersson comes in and does a great job. But the organization obviously has some measure of familiarity and confidence in its ability to turn around Ersson’s game.
If anything, the acquisition may speak to the influence of the newly-hired director of goaltender development, Maciej Szwoch. There does not appear to be any overlap in the respective careers of Ersson and Szwoch from their time in the SHL. Szwoch worked as a goaltending coach for MODO and Färjestad BK, while Ersson played for Brynäs IF.
If Ersson can’t turn it around, it could be one of those moves that gets heavily scrutinized in retrospect.
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News
This article first appeared at The Hockey News/Ott
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